# Cancellations



## dchan (Jun 29, 2004)

It will be interesting to watch and see.

Apple is probably going to cancel all its conferences. My wife was just notified one of the medical conferences she was to be involved with has been cancelled. 

Many of the other professional athlete events are being cancelled or teams are playing their games in empty arenas. 

Troubling times to say the least.


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## Jim C (Oct 15, 2002)

dchan said:


> It will be interesting to watch and see.
> 
> Apple is probably going to cancel all its conferences. My wife was just notified one of the medical conferences she was to be involved with has been cancelled.
> 
> ...


The reaction seems to be hyperbolic given some of the other "epidemics" of the last several years.


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## stevebster (Feb 5, 2018)

Table Tennis world championships were "postponed" until sometime late summer. Were to be held in S. Korea. Japan Open, A Major pro tour event was also postponed with no plans for a specific future date.


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## dchan (Jun 29, 2004)

Italy/FIS cancelled the world cup ski finals earlier.


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## archeryal (Apr 16, 2005)

Locally in Massachusetts, the Shamrock Shoot, an indoor 50/70 m unofficial event/fundraiser for Brandeis University's team, was cancelled. Apparently, the school is cancelling all such events. It was a good opportunity for snowbelt shooters to prep for Arizona and the outdoor season. We've had some very warm days recently, and I assume people took advantage of that.


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## regas (Oct 24, 2013)

chicken little was right


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## limbwalker (Sep 26, 2003)

Everyone wants to "call it" before we have any idea how bad it's really going to be. LOL Cracks me up.

I hope none of you get sick. But please be sure to post up here when you do.


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## "TheBlindArcher" (Jan 27, 2015)

Para archery European championships are suppsed to be in Italy in April, supposed to be a continental qualifier for Tokyo; reportedly WA and the IPC are "discussing" the situation, but other reports have Italy essentially shut down w/travel restrictions and cancellation of all sporting events.


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## woof156 (Apr 3, 2018)

The point is that this is more highly contagious than the flu since people can shed viruses before they even show symptoms and the virus seems to survive up to 9 days in the environment- they are trying to get ahead of this rather than regret they did nothing afterward and we have to deal with overwhelmed medical facilities. Right now it seems excessive but if it stops the spread then it would be a success. To do nothing but pretend it isn't happening seems beyond careless, and at the very least trying to manage this will give us a "what worked what didn't" skill set for when something like ebola gets unleashed on the world. Interestingly, if this does work to curb the epidemic then it will allow the doubters to live long enuf to say "see we said it was nothing".


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## limbwalker (Sep 26, 2003)

woof156 said:


> Interestingly, if this does work to curb the epidemic then it will allow the doubters to live long enuf to say "see we said it was nothing".


Exactly. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.


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## tkaap (Nov 30, 2009)

The Y2K computer bug, which was largely mitigated in critical systems so people remember it as being "no big deal". It was a big deal, but it had a known deadline and a decade of work to fix it. That's the best-case outcome -- to mitigate impact so well that in 2030 this is remembered as "that time of hand-washing just before <some more memorable event>". 

This is my favorite presentation of the motivation to take significant steps now, rather than waiting to see the pieces of the sky falling: https://www.flattenthecurve.com/ Yes, it's a bit hyperbolic, but it helps to visualize your efforts as building up the moat for someone who can't protect themselves as easily.

The basic ideas is to slow the spread and delay the onset for as long as possible. More time only good. Less time means only bad. If we delay the spread for another month, parts of the global north get into summer and that might delay spread. If we delay 3 months, early drugs might become available. If we delay all summer, then early vaccines might be ready before next northern winter...

So yes, sports will be played in empty stadiums, boozy conferences will be skipped, and everyone will get really familiar with some video conference software.

But as a trade-off, we don't lose everyone with autoimmune diseases (asthma, lupus, etc), we don't lose every diabetic, and we don't globally lose an entire generation of grandparents 20-30 years early.

It's a reason to learn good habits that will keep us healthier anyway. This might help mitigate future flu seasons by reminding people how to cover coughs, wash hands before cooking, and improve hygiene habits. Or something really nasty like SARS with an influenza transmission rate could emerge, and our experience here is our only chance to survive. (Except for the Mars colony...)

So I'd much prefer being mocked in a few years. I'd much prefer sitting around with my parents and their cousins in 20 years and enjoying their company. And doubters can wipe their noses on their sleeves, skip their flu shots, and lose 6 weeks every year miserably lying in bed wondering why bad things happen to good people...

Reminders that we live in a dangerous world help folks work together. Like realizing that most of archery is the humans vs the game. And we join together to play the game together.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sb-eaipbeAo


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## dd900 (Apr 18, 2013)

This right here:



tkaap said:


> But as a trade-off, we don't lose everyone with autoimmune diseases (asthma, lupus, etc), we don't lose every diabetic, and we don't globally lose an entire generation of grandparents 20-30 years early.
> 
> .......
> So I'd much prefer being mocked in a few years. I'd much prefer sitting around with my parents and their cousins in 20 years and enjoying their company.


We so often seem to forget It's not always about "you".

As someone with parents and friends who are in the age group most at risk, I worry about infecting them every time I see them currently. 
My mother likens it currently as standing on the train tracks and seeing the train coming at you in slow motion you know its there and still wondering hey can I get out of the way is that train going to hit me????


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## Vittorio (Jul 17, 2003)

Pls note that italian Archery Federation has CANCELLED all tournaments of any level on the entire territory up to April, 30 (shut down by the government at present ends on April 3 only).


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## Stash (Jun 1, 2002)

woof156 said:


> Right now it seems excessive but if it stops the spread then it would be a success. To do nothing but pretend it isn't happening seems beyond careless, and at the very least trying to manage this will give us a "what worked what didn't" skill set for when something like ebola gets unleashed on the world. Interestingly, if this does work to curb the epidemic then it will allow the doubters to live long enuf to say "see we said it was nothing".


We can use exactly the same words, but substitute “epidemic” with “climate change” or “pollution” or anything else that people ignore or deny.


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## Lorne (Jun 5, 2016)

I just called Brandeis regarding the Shamrock Shoot. They say things are bit hectic at the moment but they are working on providing refunds to those who have already paid (like me...).


LG


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## tassie_devil (Aug 15, 2018)

It won't stop the spread. I don't think policy makers think for one second it will. They want to slow it down to give time to find a vaccine.

FWIW, Women's cricket world cup recently finished in Australia - matches played in many cities. Final completed in front of 86,000 spectators in Melbourne last Sunday. I guess we'll see what happens in a couple of weeks.

I consider closing sporting events to be 'grandstanding' (pun intended) - wanting to be seen to do something. If our governing classes are really concerned we would just stop non-essential travel (which is basically only getting people who are away from home back there). The numbers of people passing through JFK, LAX, Heathrow, Frankfurt, Dubia/Abhu Dabi etc everyday makes it ridiculous to worry about sporting events in my opinion.


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## limbwalker (Sep 26, 2003)

tassie_devil said:


> If our governing classes are really concerned we would just stop non-essential travel (which is basically only getting people who are away from home back there). The numbers of people passing through JFK, LAX, Heathrow, Frankfurt, Dubia/Abhu Dabi etc everyday makes it ridiculous to worry about sporting events in my opinion.


You do have a point.


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## dd900 (Apr 18, 2013)

I am not a Doctor FWIW and I don't want to seem alarmist and I don't really see this as the best forum to discuss this being way off of our topics of Fita Archery so apologies for sort of keeping this thread going with another reply, but I am sort of somewhat alarmed personally at this point so and oddly helps to have an outlet to put some of this out on........



tassie_devil said:


> I consider closing sporting events to be 'grandstanding' (pun intended) - wanting to be seen to do something. If our governing classes are really concerned we would just stop non-essential travel (which is basically only getting people who are away from home back there). The numbers of people passing through JFK, LAX, Heathrow, Frankfurt, Dubia/Abhu Dabi etc everyday makes it ridiculous to worry about sporting events in my opinion.



This IMHO is less an argument that we are grandstanding\ going through over-reactive responses, and more of a illustration of why early widespread testing and containment would have been most beneficial. 
We are mostly past that phase here in the Seattle area at least.
Locally in the Seattle area at this point restricting travel through major air hubs is likely useless or at least less useful it is already here.

This has likely been spreading in the Seattle major metropolitan area since late mid to late January. It was confirmed in the first detected patient as Covid19 due to a local researcher in a normal Flu study testing samples that were not showing as flu for Covid19. 

To me anecdotally we seem to be seeing the swelling of the curve that tkapp pointed out in his post above beginning to happen now in Washington. With a seeming rapid rise in cases in multiple counties now. 
Given my even my personal reaction :embara: another reason widespread testing could be very beneficial is that it would help stop some of the panic, by showing that outside of vulnerable populations that "you john Q public" personally are at lower risk by showing more folks recovering with out adverse affects.....

At this point at least here the idea is to limit the coming inevitable community spread.


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## tassie_devil (Aug 15, 2018)

Fair point. Agree some local measures may help slow it down where it already is. The only issue with pointing out the reality of healthy people having much less to fear is that the majority of the population may be less likely to adopt voluntary measures to slow it down until vulnerable people can be vaccinated.


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## SBills (Jan 14, 2004)

Without taking a side pro or con of operating out of caution, I hope that the NFAA makes a decision sooner than later allowing enough time for those entered to cancel hotels, AirBnB's and flights without incurring large cancellation charges. That is just adding insult to injury after cancellation of a much anticipated event.


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## dchan (Jun 29, 2004)

Slowing it down will be huge in mitigation. Even if we can slow it enough to spread out the need for hospital beds, ventilators, Hospital staff, etc so that we don't overwhelm the system we may have a better chance at finding a way to deal with the illness. Not going to happen before a vaccine is found but maybe a therapy or treatment to lessen the lethal aspect of this illness. 

NBA just suspended the season. When to resume TBD...

My Dad just had a bout with pneumonia (bacterial thank goodness) but it was a scare. We just celebrated his 90th BD. I personally want to be able to spend at least a few more years with him and like a few others have mentioned, I worry about infecting him with something I might pick up every time I go visit. 

WASH YOUR HANDS. Find a song to sing, speech to recite, etc that will take you to 20 seconds! My favorite currently is 

"Space: the final frontier. These are the voyages of the starship Enterprise. Its five-year mission: to explore strange new worlds, to seek out new life and new civilizations, to boldly go where no man has gone before."

Use the version that you remember best.. Humming the following music is optional and dependent on which version of star trek and the words you use. :wink:


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## erose (Aug 12, 2014)

NBA just suspended their season due to this virus. 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## erose (Aug 12, 2014)

I’m kind of confused by all of this. To start off, I’m not saying that companies and whatnot being on the cautious side is a bad thing. I would hate to get this virus and give it to some elderly friend of mine and they die from it. So I’m cool with being cautious.

My question is that in the recent past there have been outbreaks that were far worse and deadlier than this virus, hell one has a better chance of dying from the flu, and far more people have died from the flu, than from this virus even this year. Yet what makes this virus different? Is there something that isn’t being said about this virus? I’m not one for conspiracy theories, but man this virus is getting a whole lot of coverage and concern for whatever reason, over other outbreaks that were far worse and far deadlier than this one. 

Yet, sports organizations and political entities are treating this like the second coming of small pox, from how they dealt with other pandemics in the past. Is this a new way of dealing with these types of outbreaks I wonder? Will there be a similar response in the future over future outbreaks of these types?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


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## Jim C (Oct 15, 2002)

stevebster said:


> Table Tennis world championships were "postponed" until sometime late summer. Were to be held in S. Korea. Japan Open, A Major pro tour event was also postponed with no plans for a specific future date.



Given where the virus began, and the strength of the Chinese team, that sort of figures


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## Jim C (Oct 15, 2002)

erose said:


> I’m kind of confused by all of this. To start off, I’m not saying that companies and whatnot being on the cautious side is a bad thing. I would hate to get this virus and give it to some elderly friend of mine and they die from it. So I’m cool with being cautious.
> 
> My question is that in the recent past there have been outbreaks that were far worse and deadlier than this virus, hell one has a better chance of dying from the flu, and far more people have died from the flu, than from this virus even this year. Yet what makes this virus different? Is there something that isn’t being said about this virus? I’m not one for conspiracy theories, but man this virus is getting a whole lot of coverage and concern for whatever reason, over other outbreaks that were far worse and far deadlier than this one.
> 
> ...


Yes this is strange. It is like they are treating it like Ebola. AIDS killed millions-and we didn't have any such panic.


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## dchan (Jun 29, 2004)

erose said:


> I’m kind of confused by all of this. -----
> 
> My question is that in the recent past there have been outbreaks that were far worse and deadlier than this virus, hell one has a better chance of dying from the flu, and far more people have died from the flu, than from this virus even this year. Yet what makes this virus different? Is there something that isn’t being said about this virus? I’m not one for conspiracy theories, but man this virus is getting a whole lot of coverage and concern for whatever reason, over other outbreaks that were far worse and far deadlier than this one.
> 
> ...



Actually this virus as of right now, statistically is 10x more deadly than the flu so if you contract it you are more likely to die from this than the flu. (about 3% with current stats, vs 0.1% chance with the flu) If you are in the "high risk" group the number goes up 18% chance this illness will be fatal.

You have to realize that the flu is so wide spread, that the number of people that contract the flu is so huge that the mortality rage is that low. The other thing about the flu is we have a relatively effective Vaccine (presuming you are not an anti-vaxxer), and very effective treatments that almost stop the flu in its tracks. There are known ways to mitigate the symptoms and treat the flu.

Because so little is known about this particular virus, How it is spread? How long is the incubation before the host begins to exhibits symptoms? How infectious is this host before they test positive? 

As we learn more and more, it appears that the virus has been transmitted well into the community before anyone shows up as patient zero if they do at all. 

There was a group of US skiers that went to Italy on a ski trip. 14 of the 14 all contracted the virus within a few days of their trip. Many of the group are in their 40's and yet many are hospitalized. Several were critical.

The biggest problem is we don't know how many people are infected, or who may be carriers. There is no treatment for this virus other than to deal with it's symptoms and try to get the human body to fight it off. Until we know how little or much contact can transmit the virus, along with a way to treat the virus, I totally understand the reasoning so many groups are taking.


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## dchan (Jun 29, 2004)

Jim C said:


> Yes this is strange. It is like they are treating it like Ebola. AIDS killed millions-and we didn't have any such panic.


Ebola was spread through direct contact with blood or body fluids. While the disease had a much higher fatality rate, Transmission was well known and with proper protocols was relatively easy to contain. Ebola was never really declared a Global Pandemic because the health organizations were able to contain the illness.

Aids is a global pandemic however how it is transmitted is now well known. (body fluids and sexual contact). Spread was slow and drawn out at the beginning and over time we have found many treatments to mitigate the symptoms and illness. There was panic at the outset.


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## Archer_Cam32 (Nov 7, 2018)

Jim C said:


> The ATP and WTA cancelled one of the most Important professional tennis tournaments in the world-The ATP Masters and WTA Premier level event at Indian Wells, California, that was scheduled to start tomorrow. The US Squash Racquets Association, just cancelled all of the national junior championships (they have 3 levels-Gold for the top 32 kids in each age group/gender, Silver for the next 32, and Bronze for those ranked below 64) and the adult nationals. In Ohio, the state basketball final four for High Schools will continue but each athlete can only bring 4 family members, w while coaches, two. At the Arnold Classic-which had dozens of sports in Columbus, most of the events were closed to spectators.
> 
> Some would claim this sort of reaction is prudent, others see it as mass hysteria. The next big events for target archers include the S3DA Nationals/USAA Finals/and NFAA Indoor Nationals in the renovated Convention Center in Louisville starting in a little more than a week. Then the Arizona Cup in early April.
> 
> As of right now, the KY events seem to be going forward.


Seeing that KY NASP State this weekend was just canceled, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they cancel Indoor Nationals. With one case confirmed in Louisville, and the Governor's push to cancel just about anything that is a "public event," I'd be more surprised if they don't cancel.


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## ceratops (May 17, 2017)

I suggest looking up FlattenTheCurve. As dchan said, it's a matter of delaying the spread enough to not overwhelm health care resources. Or not overwhelm them as badly.

As a graphic example, if local hospitals have 10 ventilators, and you have 11 patients with covid pneumonia who need those ventilators to survive the next week - that's better than having 10 ventilators and having 25 patients who need them NOW.

Existing resources are scaled to meet the usual ongoing needs, which factors in what happens in a familiar plain vanilla flu season. It doesn't factor in a rapid large increase in demand.


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## Vittorio (Jul 17, 2003)

Spring Arrows tournament in Turkey cancelled 
Guatemala Archery World Cup leg cancelled


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## woof156 (Apr 3, 2018)

erose said:


> I’m kind of confused by all of this. To start off, I’m not saying that companies and whatnot being on the cautious side is a bad thing. I would hate to get this virus and give it to some elderly friend of mine and they die from it. So I’m cool with being cautious.
> 
> My question is that in the recent past there have been outbreaks that were far worse and deadlier than this virus, hell one has a better chance of dying from the flu, and far more people have died from the flu, than from this virus even this year. Yet what makes this virus different? Is there something that isn’t being said about this virus? I’m not one for conspiracy theories, but man this virus is getting a whole lot of coverage and concern for whatever reason, over other outbreaks that were far worse and far deadlier than this one.
> 
> ...


Actually this is 10 times more deadly than the flu and many many times more contagious and that is a problem, As one of those in the age group to be most severely affected I am happy to err on the side of caution--what exactly that should be is?? we are on a learning curve here. Real people will be affected- me, most of my current family, and most of my friends.. so we can be cavalier about this and not do anything- I mean 80% of the cases are manageable so??? But some of us will be affected and biased as I am we are real people. Also in our population we have some antibody titer against most flu viruses but not this one, so each year with flu shots and natural resistance we get thru the year mostly unscathed. This is a different beast and after we get thru this we will have antibodies against this virus too. Like many I am worried about the economic fall out but only history will tell us whether we were right or wrong in the decisions we made- afterward Monday morning quarterbacking will become an avocation.


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## 65690 (Jan 21, 2007)

Very smart interview:

Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota. Look for his book "Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Deadly Germs" for more info. https://amzn.to/2IAzeLe
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/

Interview link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw


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## lcaillo (Jan 5, 2014)

I agree that it seems that the panic is out of proportion to the risk, but there are differences with this one that are a serious concern. It could get out of hand quickly. There is no vaccine and there is no treatment, and it appears that it can be transmitted by those without clear symptoms. Also, the incubation period is long, and the risk to those with other health issues is much greater than flu, for instance. 

Hopefully, there will be some good that comes from this. If people learn how to protect themselves and others better with standard precautions, we may see less serious episodes of other disease, including flu or the next new virus that comes along.


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## Cuthbert (Nov 28, 2005)

Not really sure why we are dancing around the subject. The only real way we have to mitigate the spread of this is to limit exposure. Those who get exposed may not get hit hard, but because they can be infectious for up to a month run a real risk of spreading it to those who will be. Factors that severely increase mortality are age, smoking and obesity. I know a lot of guys that are over forty and fat. This isn't the flu for those who are at risk. I understand that the NFAA will be out a bunch of money, but I also think that it's not a good idea to put people we love at risk.


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## erose (Aug 12, 2014)

woof156 said:


> Actually this is 10 times more deadly than the flu and many many times more contagious and that is a problem, As one of those in the age group to be most severely affected I am happy to err on the side of caution--what exactly that should be is?? we are on a learning curve here. Real people will be affected- me, most of my current family, and most of my friends.. so we can be cavalier about this and not do anything- I mean 80% of the cases are manageable so??? But some of us will be affected and biased as I am we are real people. Also in our population we have some antibody titer against most flu viruses but not this one, so each year with flu shots and natural resistance we get thru the year mostly unscathed. This is a different beast and after we get thru this we will have antibodies against this virus too. Like many I am worried about the economic fall out but only history will tell us whether we were right or wrong in the decisions we made- afterward Monday morning quarterbacking will become an avocation.


If you read my entire post, I stated I had no issue with being cautious with this virus, and I'm not faulting any company or political entity with erring on the side of caution. My curiosity (I'm the curious type) has been raised on this, concerning the level of caution taken versus other pandemics in the past. Is this a new level of response we are going to see in the future? Why wasn't this level of response taken in the past with other pandemics?

The great thing though is that it doesn't seem that this virus is dangerous to children, unlike the flu. But I agree that if you are one of the high risk folks as in your case, and if I was in your shoes, I would be taking ever level of precaution, and hopefully (I pray) that these precautions being taken, prevents people from loosing their lives over this virus, and in a few weeks or months, this pandemic is behind us.


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## erose (Aug 12, 2014)

lcaillo said:


> Hopefully, there will be some good that comes from this. If people learn how to protect themselves and others better with standard precautions, we may see less serious episodes of other disease, including flu or the next new virus that comes along.


 Leonard, you know that aint going to happen. I flew home yesterday, and I still seen folks leaving the bathroom not washing their hands. 

Sad thing is when I left Louisiana, for this trip to Utah, both states didn't have any reported cases. A few days later, that is no longer the case.


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## Jim C (Oct 15, 2002)

erose said:


> NBA just suspended their season due to this virus.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk




The governor of Ohio just banned gatherings of more than 100 people. Constitutionally, this might be infirm. We have our state S3DA tournament sunday but we can only accommodate 40 per line so we are ok.

the memorial service for my sister-in law's mother is tomorrow- We expect more than 100. Interesting


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## rsarns (Sep 23, 2008)

NHL canx their season, WA World Cup canceled in a Guatemala, MLB postponed opening day and canceled spring training immediately. Yet NFAA can’t make a decision?


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## Cuthbert (Nov 28, 2005)

rsarns said:


> NHL canx their season, WA World Cup canceled in a Guatemala, MLB postponed opening day and canceled spring training immediately. Yet NFAA can’t make a decision?


Kentucky might make it for them. They had a couple people attending the convention center test positive. That means the staff there might be infected.


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## lees (Feb 10, 2017)

Jim C said:


> Yes this is strange. It is like they are treating it like Ebola. AIDS killed millions-and we didn't have any such panic.


Part of the extra attention is that Corona also happened to be the pin that finally popped the stock/bond market bubble starting about a week ago. It was just a happenstance that Corona coincided with a stock market and economy that was in absolutely catastrophically horrible condition. Couple that with an executive branch that only cares about the stock market and not any human tragedies caused by the epidemic and says so at every announcement it makes.

Roll all that together simultaneously and you have a really really big kaboom that's heard literally around the world. If the economy had been in good shape, and our federal government hadn't been crippled and gutted by incompetent public officials prior, this might just be 2nd page news and not that big of a deal here in the US. 

The DJIA is down as of today something like 30% in just a week's time as a result. The virus is just what happened to finally tip the teetering, debt-laden US financial system over, so it's getting a lot of extra press because of that....

lee.


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## SBills (Jan 14, 2004)

NCAA March Madness is cancelled.


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## tassie_devil (Aug 15, 2018)

F1 Grand Prix in Melbourne touch and go. Australian football league to go ahead but empty stadiums possible.

I still think Olympics wii go ahead - we’ll probably all have been exposed by then.

AIDS was a bit different. Much harder to actually catch. And there was plenty of hysteria there too.


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## SBills (Jan 14, 2004)

It would seem that Louisville has made the decision for the NFAA. 

https://www.wdrb.com/news/louisvill...cle_855c28ba-64a4-11ea-8684-7320b70a48d0.html


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## tkaap (Nov 30, 2009)

Here's a thought that crossed my web browsing just now: It's a good time to shop at some small shops. Even buying online from stores and vendors that normally sell into events that are being cancelled can help folks get by. Or even buy gift certificates to keep their cash flow going until for traffic can resume.

So it's probably a good time to start shopping for later in the year.


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## rsarns (Sep 23, 2008)

SBills said:


> It would seem that Louisville has made the decision for the NFAA.
> 
> https://www.wdrb.com/news/louisvill...cle_855c28ba-64a4-11ea-8684-7320b70a48d0.html


I canceled as a precaution, being 65, had a couple heart attacks and have respiratory issues thanks to exposure to bad stuff while in the military. I had been practicing my butt off, but with aging in laws, and my own issues.... see you outdoors. 2500-3000 people from all over in a confined space is not a good idea in my humble opinion.


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## Jim C (Oct 15, 2002)

NFAA is cancelled for next week. Maybe postponed to the fall with several dates in September possible or October


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## lksseven (Mar 21, 2010)

I hope no one else gets sick with this virus (but of course they will). But I also hurt for the huge economic hardship/wounds that thousands of people and small 
businesses are/will be experiencing as a result of the economic devastation of this. No matter what strategy is employed, it's a dangerous world out there, fraught with peril and risk. Luck! to all of us.


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## woof156 (Apr 3, 2018)

erose;1112119701 My curiosity (I'm the curious type) has been raised on this said:


> My understanding is that there have been no pandemics like this one in recent times. With the long lag period between shedding viruses and symptoms appearing this has thus increased the potential infection rate. Swine flu was bad but the spread rate potential was lower than this virus with a spread rate around 2 people per infected individual and its spread was after symptoms had appeared (one person in NY spread COVID to 50 other people)-- this virus has a greater spread potential. Air travel has given any pandemic greater potential for damage. Though the death rate from this virus is relatively low ( still 10 times that of typical flu) its spreadability make it more serious. Only History will tell whether we were able to flatten the curve with the measures taken - the economic impact will be substantial and probably more wide spread than the virus. In America we tend to be more spread out-save for the cities- so hopefully the numbers will stay low. Ebola epidemic was a big fear and rightly so but it was nipped in the bud before it spread very far- it has a very short lag period between getting the disease and displaying symptoms/ability to spread it but it was millions of times more deadly than this virus-most of the transmission was to health care workers and family.


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## Roy D (Nov 30, 2019)

My country just declared lock down phase two: all restaurants, schools and sports venues and clubs to be closed. I need to make a target for in my garage to keep some sanity going.


It is not just the elderly at risk erose sadly. I have been digesting medical articles on this since early january. In my age bracket 40-50 CFR in a health system barely coping is about 0.1% Above that it starts to climb up and up. Below that it is not 0% either. 

The UK's chief medical officer and chief science officer gave a briefing last week where their worst case scenario is 80% of the population infected with the peak of infections at the height of summer when 6-7 million people will be sick at the same time and a CFR of 1%. 67.000.000 people in the UK so 536.000 dead. They kept stressing worst case scenario and saying it could be much much less. The CFR the WHO gave the same day was 3.8%. With a peak of 6-7 million ill at the same time that 1% cfr is a pipe dream anyways. 15% requires care, 5% requires ICU treatment. Hospital beds per 100.000 people varies between 3-10 across Europe, with ICU making up a fraction of those. 
Angela Merkel a few days later said they expect in Germany 70% infected by the end of summer period. Not worst case - it will happen. 
With an R0 of between 2.5 and 7.7 depending on how aware the population is and what measures are in place it spreads pretty quickly. 
Assume it lives where you do by now. The only good news I found were the numbers from South Korea. Agressive and extensive testing and isolation of both tested and suspected cases, staggered treatment centers and their CFR is 0.7%. But most elsewhere no one is following this example at all. 


Therapeutics like the synthetic antibodies going into testing and probably ready in 3 months. Outcomes of the other therapeutics on trial now in double blind studies are due in a few weeks. Last statistical analysis I came across the numbers point to a doubling of cases in clusters above I think it was 5000 cases every 5 days.


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## Matt Zumbo (Jan 15, 2011)

Jim C said:


> Yes this is strange. It is like they are treating it like Ebola. AIDS killed millions-and we didn't have any such panic.


You had to have sex with an infected person to get HIV or have contact with blood. Covid-19 is an airborne pathogen that is very easy to transmit. My dad is on the front line working in the fire service and knows more that you. With a two percent death rate with the expectation of this virus infecting 95 to 160 million americans, that is 1.9 to 3.2 million preventable deaths.

You should NOT downplay what you don't understand.

Hope for the best but prepare for the worst. We are not prepared to care or 1.9 to 3.2 critically ill americans.

Matt


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## limbwalker (Sep 26, 2003)

So it's basically like going back to 1978.

I thought this day would never come. I've been preparing for this since, well, 1978. LOL

Look, I'm not making light of this situation at all but damn some of you sound like you never grew up without all the things you have today. 

Go outside. Breathe some clean air. Put down the cell phone and turn off the damn TV for a few weeks. You just might find that you enjoy it.


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## woof156 (Apr 3, 2018)

limbwalker said:


> Put down the cell phone and turn off the damn TV for a few weeks. You just might find that you enjoy it.


A good chance to pair up with a friend- one who does not cough, sniffle or wheeze a lot of course- and go out into the woods hunting the elusive foam tiger, antelope, bear, bat, frog, veloceraptor...........they're waiting.....along with some obnoxious stumps etc


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## dchan (Jun 29, 2004)

Matt Zumbo said:


> You had to have sex with an infected person to get HIV or have contact with blood. Covid-19 is an airborne pathogen that is very easy to transmit. My dad is on the front line working in the fire service and knows more that you. With a two percent death rate with the expectation of this virus infecting 95 to 160 million americans, that is 1.9 to 3.2 million preventable deaths.
> 
> You should NOT downplay what you don't understand.
> 
> ...


This^^^^^^

However please consider this also.

Just a reminder. The CDC said to have 30 days of necessities on hand, just in case...

Which means:

*Unless you have a medical problem, no one goes through 240 rolls of TP in 30 days. 

*Unless you want to fill your bathtub with Purel, no one needs 5 liters of hand sanitizer for 30 days.

*Unless you are setting up your own sterile laboratory with stage 3 quarantine protocols, you do not need 12 bottles of Lysol for 30-days. 

*Unless you are expecting you will be sick with a fever every day of the 30 days, and you will be around others during that entire time, and you replace your face mask once every 10 minutes, NO ONE needs 800 face masks for 30 days.

*Unless you are babysitting 10 babies, no one needs over 50 packages of baby-wipes for 30 days.

Because... and hear this...

-Others need toilet paper.
-Others need hand sanitizer.
-Others need Lysol.
-Others need baby-wipes.
-Others, when they are sick and have to be out in public, need masks.

*Masks are ONLY worn by people who are sick to prevent from spreading their germs. 

You are making yourself less safe by hoarding supplies because you are making it harder for others to be safe 
and take reasonable precautions against sickness and/or diseases.

*Please buy only what you NEED, and save supplies for others so EVERYONE is able to take precaution.*

We can't stress this enough... PLEASE WASH YOUR HANDS *FREQUENTLY*, AND LIMIT PHYSICAL CONTACT FOR NOW.

Copy & Paste to spread the reminder.


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## ksarcher (May 22, 2002)

Matt Zumbo said:


> You had to have sex with an infected person to get HIV or have contact with blood. Covid-19 is an airborne pathogen that is very easy to transmit. My dad is on the front line working in the fire service and knows more that you. With a two percent death rate with the expectation of this virus infecting 95 to 160 million americans, that is 1.9 to 3.2 million preventable deaths.
> 
> You should NOT downplay what you don't understand.
> 
> ...


Matt, Finally a voice of reason and logic. We are not prepared! With the willful destruction of our health care system especially in rural areas it is frightening.


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## ButchD (Nov 11, 2006)

ksarcher said:


> Matt, Finally a voice of reason and logic. We are not prepared! With the willful destruction of our health care system especially in rural areas it is frightening.


Thanks MAtt, Dchan!


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## woof156 (Apr 3, 2018)

dchan said:


> This^^^^^^
> 
> However please consider this also.
> 
> ...


This should have been posted in grocery stores near me-- not that anyone would have read it, but they should have. :sad:


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## midwayarcherywi (Sep 24, 2006)

Human nature being what it is, there will be overreaction, which in this case, may not be a bad thing. There are so many things we can do in this sport, which is by and large a sport of individual practitioners. Practice is done mostly independently. We can still do what we do as archers. The competition piece, as well as AAP and JOAD may have to be shelved temporarily, but let's celebrate what we can do and then let's go do it!!


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## "TheBlindArcher" (Jan 27, 2015)

midwayarcherywi said:


> Human nature being what it is, there will be overreaction, which in this case, may not be a bad thing. There are so many things we can do in this sport, which is by and large a sport of individual practitioners. Practice is done mostly independently. We can still do what we do as archers. The competition piece, as well as AAP and JOAD may have to be shelved temporarily, but let's celebrate what we can do and then let's go do it!!




Ironically, my normal range time yesterday, which is almost always a single shooter affair, had every shooting line full, couldn't even find a place to set up.


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## Vittorio (Jul 17, 2003)

https://worldarchery.org/news/17828...uspended-until-30-april-due-covid-19-outbreak


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## tunedlow (Nov 7, 2012)

Jim C said:


> Yes this is strange. It is like they are treating it like Ebola. AIDS killed millions-and we didn't have any such panic.


To a health professional, something like SARS isn't any different than a BL4/max pathogen when you are focused at the patient count and the rate of infection that is relative to what you can do to prevent it given the part of the population that might risk developing the later stages of COVID-19 complications. The idea is to contain, mitigate risk and implement measures so the wards do not get overrun and people don't get sick in the first place.

This is only strange to people who aren't in healthcare because the government was complacent in handling something that was on the other side of the globe not thinking how people going back and forth can bring this bug from Wuhan to rural America in a matter of weeks. Normally, the first line of defense in containment is able to keep a bug at the epicenter before it seeps out. Ebola made it to the US in a few cases in recent years only because healthcare workers contracted the disease working with infected patients but was quickly quarantined. In this case, the government was not quick in mounting a first phase of defense to deal with a worst cases scenario and is now paying for it. Further the primary qPCR diagnostic method is not up to speed enough to do adequate en-masse testing in many communities that do not have the reagents, kits or equipment to run such assays.

To be clear, public health experts are dealing with this like it is Ebola not because it is as dangerous but because of what it can do if it does take hold of the right demographic of patients and the ****-show that will ensue. Be glad this isn't an airborne BL4/max pathogen, otherwise, the country would be dealing with way worse symptoms and more stringent measures for containment. Those sealed BL4 rated isolation suits ain't fun to wear.


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## tunedlow (Nov 7, 2012)

"TheBlindArcher" said:


> Ironically, my normal range time yesterday, which is almost always a single shooter affair, had every shooting line full, couldn't even find a place to set up.


Doesn't sound like a good idea. Hopefully no one in there was sick.


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## "TheBlindArcher" (Jan 27, 2015)

tunedlow said:


> Doesn't sound like a good idea. Hopefully no one in there was sick.




I only made it in as far as the door, so I'm optimistic, but yeah, didn't seem like the best of moves.


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## tunedlow (Nov 7, 2012)

"TheBlindArcher" said:


> I only made it in as far as the door, so I'm optimistic, but yeah, didn't seem like the best of moves.


Friend told me that folks are crossing states lines to eat out at places because state policy has closed down bars and restaurants as a precaution. I wonder if the idiocy of this practice has not occurred to the people in question. Did they think infection has a state jurisdiction or something?


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## limbwalker (Sep 26, 2003)

tunedlow said:


> Friend told me that folks are crossing states lines to eat out at places because state policy has closed down bars and restaurants as a precaution. I wonder if the idiocy of this practice has not occurred to the people in question. Did they think infection has a state jurisdiction or something?


Exactly what % of people do you believe there are that think of anyone but themselves?


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## ksarcher (May 22, 2002)

limbwalker said:


> Exactly what % of people do you believe there are that think of anyone but themselves?


48%... per the latest numbers!!!


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## limbwalker (Sep 26, 2003)

ksarcher said:


> 48%... per the latest numbers!!!


Less than half - that I can believe!


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## "TheBlindArcher" (Jan 27, 2015)

ksarcher said:


> 48%... per the latest numbers!!!




Take a stroll down the TP isle and this number suddenly feels inflated.


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## ArcherDrive (Apr 13, 2017)

dchan- how dare you think logically! In all seriousness, picture perfect post. Take a breath and use your damn heads, people. Even if you're not in a high risk demographic, think of those in your circle that are. Limit as much exposure as possible, but still live your life. Event cancellations are a small temporary inconvenience.


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## limbwalker (Sep 26, 2003)

ArcherDrive said:


> Event cancellations are a small temporary inconvenience.


No joke. What a minor inconvenience if it means saving lives. 

Go in your yard and shoot and train. Hell, this is the best training opportunity many people in the sport have ever had. No stupid events to screw up your expectations and your form. Ought to be a perfect time to refine your shot.


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## tassie_devil (Aug 15, 2018)

limbwalker said:


> Go in your yard and shoot and train. Hell, this is the best training opportunity many people in the sport have ever had. No stupid events to screw up your expectations and your form. Ought to be a perfect time to refine your shot.


Exactly what I was thinking. One great thing about archery - also works in isolation.


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## Arcus (Jul 7, 2005)

limbwalker said:


> What a minor inconvenience if it means saving lives.


Can't eat at a restaurant. Can't go to the movies. No sports to watch on TV. Man, these first-world problems are very annoying.


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## tunedlow (Nov 7, 2012)

Arcus said:


> Can't eat at a restaurant. Can't go to the movies. No sports to watch on TV. Man, these first-world problems are very annoying.


 Only annoying because many have become soft and lost sight of the bigger picture that avoiding illness of those at risk is a concern and heading this bug off at the pass is a logical strategy.


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## tunedlow (Nov 7, 2012)

limbwalker said:


> Exactly what % of people do you believe there are that think of anyone but themselves?


High enough that it pisses me off how that percentage actually exist and messes **** up for everyone else.


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## f_thomas (Oct 12, 2006)

World Archery Cancels All International Competitions 


https://worldarchery.org/news/17828...uspended-until-30-april-due-covid-19-outbreak


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## lksseven (Mar 21, 2010)

Arcus said:


> Can't eat at a restaurant. Can't go to the movies. No sports to watch on TV. Man, these first-world problems are very annoying.


I agree with your sentiment toward those targeted (the "sillies"). 

But lots of hardships going on even in the first world will likely be a massive devastation even for thinking, sober, serious people ... sales off 40%, how to make payroll in two weeks?, facing laying off multiple 25year-tenured employees. Public companies have the money to weather; many big companies have the resources or access to credit to weather, or will get govt bailouts/help; but tens of thousands of small businesses (and the hundreds of thousands (or more) of employees who have depended on those businesses for their livelihoods) are going to be out of business by May ... businesses that have survived everything else thrown at them for decades, but can't survive the world not coming out to play. 

I'll bet the dinosaurs had the same thought when the big meteor struck Earth ("Whoa! I didn't see THAT coming!")


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## lksseven (Mar 21, 2010)

midwayarcherywi said:


> Human nature being what it is, there will be overreaction, which in this case, may not be a bad thing. There are so many things we can do in this sport, which is by and large a sport of individual practitioners. Practice is done mostly independently. We can still do what we do as archers. The competition piece, as well as AAP and JOAD may have to be shelved temporarily, but let's celebrate what we can do and then let's go do it!!


Gabe, agree with your gungho-ness. This is a great sport, so flexible and malleable to circumstances. Ala John, let's practice without the distractions of formal competitions this Spring. Now's a great time to make hard goals to really improve that one aspect of our shot that we've been meaning to improve "when I have the time to do it". Well, that time is surely 'now'.


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## midwayarcherywi (Sep 24, 2006)

lksseven said:


> I'll bet the dinosaurs had the same thought when the big meteor struck Earth ("Whoa! I didn't see THAT coming!")


Watch out for that tree!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4hXdsVUnp4


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## limbwalker (Sep 26, 2003)

lksseven said:


> Now's a great time to make hard goals to really improve that one aspect of our shot that we've been meaning to improve "when I have the time to do it". Well, that time is surely 'now'.


If anyone needs instructions on how to make a homemade Formaster from parts you probably already have laying around the house, there are on here. Just search for them. A spare luggage strap and piece of paracord is all you need.


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## lksseven (Mar 21, 2010)

midwayarcherywi said:


> Watch out for that tree!!!
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4hXdsVUnp4


LOL. What a great jingle. As a kid, I used to love watching George


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## Arcus (Jul 7, 2005)

tunedlow said:


> Only annoying because many have become soft and lost sight of the bigger picture that avoiding illness of those at risk is a concern and heading this bug off at the pass is a logical strategy.





lksseven said:


> I agree with your sentiment toward those targeted (the "sillies").
> 
> But lots of hardships going on even in the first world will likely be a massive devastation even for thinking, sober, serious people ... sales off 40%, how to make payroll in two weeks?, facing laying off multiple 25year-tenured employees. Public companies have the money to weather; many big companies have the resources or access to credit to weather, or will get govt bailouts/help; but tens of thousands of small businesses (and the hundreds of thousands (or more) of employees who have depended on those businesses for their livelihoods) are going to be out of business by May ... businesses that have survived everything else thrown at them for decades, but can't survive the world not coming out to play.
> 
> I'll bet the dinosaurs had the same thought when the big meteor struck Earth ("Whoa! I didn't see THAT coming!")


My comment was meant to lighten things up by poking fun at myself for complaining about super-trivial things.


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## FLlongshot (Jan 2, 2008)

This is going to get a whole lot less trivial in major urban areas where large percentages of people live paycheck to paycheck. Where exactly does everyone think they are going to go grocery shopping when they don't have money to spend...?


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## Steve P (May 14, 2009)

Arcus said:


> My comment was meant to lighten things up by poking fun at myself for complaining about super-trivial things.


That's the way I took it. 

Steve


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## limbwalker (Sep 26, 2003)

The issue is not trivial. Not being able to attend elective events for entertainment, is.


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## stevebster (Feb 5, 2018)

Walked my local mall 2 days ago. A number of stores were closed with various notes posted, planned reduction in hours, short staff so closed for the day, etc. Today the mall announced reduced hours, 7 hours a day. Home Depot announced locally reduced hours, closing at 6 vs 10 PM. Many restaurants are only doing take-out or delivery. Lot's of people will be working limited hours or not at all. Short term local economic impacts will be pretty severe. Got notice that REI is closing all of its retail stores for something like 2 weeks. They will provide free shipping on on-line orders and are still paying the store employees for that time period at least. One compassionate employer.


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## dchan (Jun 29, 2004)

San Francisco bay area is effectively shut down. 

https://www.sfdph.org/dph/alerts/files/HealthOrderC19-07- Shelter-in-Place.pdf

Currently the strictest restrictions in the nation.

Guess some home projects will have to get done now! 

I will be going to several “essential services” events. Three food banks operated by my church, and a few of our sister churches will be severely short of staff due to many of our regular volunteers fall into the “at high risk” category. Too many people rely on these services so the food banks will continue to operate with stronger protocols in place and much extended hours so to spread the stream of people out for safe distancing, meaning more volunteers needed to distribute.

If you are healthy and not at risk, consider helping out your local food bank!


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## tunedlow (Nov 7, 2012)

Arcus said:


> My comment was meant to lighten things up by poking fun at myself for complaining about super-trivial things.


No worries. Long as people stay healthy and adhere to proper public health protocol - the rest is gravy. I am really amused at seeing fist fights over toilet paper at my local grocery store. Toilet paper. Who needs TV?


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## rsarns (Sep 23, 2008)

Texas Field Archery Association has just cancelled all SYWAT field events until May.


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## lksseven (Mar 21, 2010)

Arcus said:


> My comment was meant to lighten things up by poking fun at myself for complaining about super-trivial things.


Got it now! And agree with you. Probably we're all a little guilty of that much of the time.


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